Carry trade works in stable conditions

A carry trade is one of the most straightforward yet potent strategies in the foreign exchange market, but its success hinges entirely on one critical factor: stability. When markets are calm, interest rate differentials between currencies create predictable profit opportunities. When volatility spikes, that same trade can unwind catastrophically. For investors looking to profit safely, understanding how carry trades function under stable conditions is essential, and this requires a deeper look at the types of forex transactions that make them possible.

At its core, a carry trade involves borrowing a currency with a low interest rate and using those funds to purchase a currency with a higher interest rate. The profit comes from the difference, or “carry,“ between the two rates. For example, if the Japanese yen offers a near-zero interest rate and the Australian dollar offers a yield of 4 percent, an investor who sells yen and buys Australian dollars earns roughly 4 percent annually simply by holding the position overnight. This is not speculation on price movement; it is an income-generating transaction that mimics a bond yield. However, the transaction itself is a spot forex trade combined with a rollover mechanic. When you buy a currency pair, you are simultaneously entering a spot contract to exchange one currency for another at the current rate, and your broker automatically settles any interest owed or earned each day at 5 PM Eastern Time. That daily settlement is the carry.

The types of forex transactions involved in a carry trade extend beyond simple spot trades. Investors also use forward contracts to lock in exchange rates for future delivery. In stable conditions, forward rates accurately reflect interest rate differentials, meaning you can calculate your carry return precisely. A forward contract for a high-yielding currency will trade at a discount relative to the spot rate, because the market prices in the interest advantage. This discount, known as forward points, ensures that the carry trade’s return is already embedded in the price you pay. You are not gambling on rate changes; you are arbitraging the difference between what the forward contract implies and what the spot market will deliver over time.

Another transaction type that supports carry trades in stable conditions is the swap. Forex swaps allow traders to exchange currencies for a specified period while agreeing to reverse the trade later. Institutional investors use swaps to execute large carry trades without moving spot prices. In calm markets, liquidity is abundant, and swap spreads remain tight. This means the cost of entering and exiting a carry position is low, preserving the net interest profit. The stability also keeps margin requirements predictable, as currency pairs in low-volatility environments do not trigger frequent margin calls. An investor can hold a carry trade for weeks or months, collecting daily rollover credits, without worrying about sudden capital demands.

The reason stable conditions are so vital is that exchange rates rarely stay perfectly aligned with interest rate differentials. If the high-yielding currency depreciates by more than the interest you earn, the trade loses money. This is called “negative carry” in terms of capital loss. Under stable economic growth, low inflation, and predictable central bank policies, currency pairs tend to trade in narrow ranges. The risk of a sharp devaluation is minimal. For example, during periods when the Federal Reserve maintains steady rates and the Swiss National Bank does the same, the dollar-Swiss franc pair sees low volatility, making a carry trade between those currencies reliable.

Furthermore, stable conditions reduce the risk of a “carry trade unwind.“ When global volatility suddenly rises, investors flee riskier high-yielding currencies and rush into safe havens like the yen or Swiss franc. This reverse flow can cause the low-yielding currency to appreciate rapidly, wiping out months of carry profits in days. In stable conditions, this flight-to-safety effect is absent, and the market behaves rationally based on fundamentals.

For the experienced trader, executing a carry trade under stable conditions involves selecting pairs with a wide interest rate differential, low correlation to risk assets, and central banks that are not expected to change rates abruptly. Transactions should be placed using spot trades for simplicity, with stops wide enough to avoid being triggered by normal fluctuations. The key is to treat the carry as a return on capital rather than a speculative bet. When markets are calm, the mechanics of forex transactions—spot, forward, and swap—all align to deliver a steady, predictable income stream. That is the essence of how carry trades work, and why they fail the moment stability breaks.